Wednesday, March 05, 2008

The elephant in the room that the Elephants don't want you to see

It is false that a long primary fight between two strong candidates with powerful support from a vocal and fired-up constituency is somehow going to erode voters' motivation. Ain't gonna happen. Whether it's Barack or Hillary (and unless they manage to fundamentally upend delegate rules and procedures in less than six weeks' time, it's Barack), the opposing forces are not going to just stay home in November. The vast majority will still go out and vote for the Democratic candidate:

Buried in the poll-taking, however, was a surprising figure among those who identified themselves as Obama supporters. While 73% of Obama supporters felt that Clinton should drop out of the race if she lost both Texas and Ohio, nearly half of them (46%) felt it would be perfectly appropriate for Clinton to remain in the race, had she only won one of those states.

This percentage was far less than the number posted by "all Democrats" who felt Clinton had justifiable reason to remain in the race in the "win-one, lose-one" scenario by a 67-29 margin.

Whether it's big Hollywood change or "experience matters" inside-the-Beltway change, we're going to see change. These people are fired up and they're not going to stay home in a snit. And the R versus D turnouts all through primary season tell us who will control Congress and the White House come January.

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